Al Qaeda affiliates are working with Tuareg fighters to overrun Mali, with historic Timbuktu set to fall, and the capital Bamako also encircled. In this part of the world, pragmatism is a necessity.
Algeria and Mali bury the hatchet to face a shared threat
Across a border stretching for more than 2,300km, in the muted contest for influence in the African Sahel, Algeria and Mali have brought their longest diplomatic rupture in recent memory to an end by restoring relations and fully reopening their airspace. It reflects a clear-eyed pragmatism and a return to political realism.
The geography of the Sahel means its dangers move across frontiers, and this reality of threat often proves more compelling than narrow political calculations. Just as some wondered whether bilateral relations had deteriorated irretrievably, an announcement from the Algerian Ministry of Defence caught many by surprise.
It marked a turning point and set in motion a rapid sequence of developments. The Algerian authorities formally announced the complete reopening of the country’s airspace to civilian and military flights bound for, or arriving from, Mali, ending the stringent air restrictions imposed in April 2025. Bamako responded immediately by reopening its own airspace. This cleared the way for the restoration of diplomatic missions, with ambassadors resuming their duties in Algiers and Bamako.
To an extent, events have been dictated by an exceptionally precarious security environment. Saida Salama, professor of politics at the University of Algiers, thinks the diplomatic convergence between Algeria and Mali “represents far more than a bilateral easing of tensions”. She said: “It reflects a deeper struggle to reshape the geopolitical balance in the African Sahel, which has become an arena of competing regional and international influence. This development forms part of wider efforts to redraw the map of power across Africa’s strategic interior.”
This geopolitical realignment is closely bound to the consequences of disorder and the proliferation of armed groups in Mali. The country now faces an existential threat following the abandonment of earlier peace accords, foremost among them the Agreement on Peace and Reconciliation signed in Algiers on 1 March 2015 by the Malian government and political movements from northern Mali, which sought to bring the conflict to an end and lay the foundations for stability.
Fighting in Mali has since advanced far beyond the bounds of conventional guerrilla warfare. Suicide drones and carefully planned ambushes periodically strike infantry convoys and military reinforcements belonging to the Malian army, as well as personnel from Russia’s Africa Corps, a mercenary outfit once named the Wagner Group. Meanwhile, an alliance of armed movements has imposed a suffocating security and economic cordon around the capital, Bamako.
This coalition is led by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda, in cooperation with separatist Tuareg factions. The convergence of these armed groups has sounded alarm in capitals around the world and made it imperative that Algerian and Malian state forces work together, because Bamako can no longer hope to stabilise its isolated northern regions without Algerian support. Algeria, in turn, cannot overlook the expansion of grey zones run by militias along its southern frontier.
Ould Seddik Miloud, a professor of politics at Dr Moulay Tahar University, said the growing international interest in the Sahara “requires us to acknowledge an indisputable geopolitical reality: owing to its direct proximity to our borders and the complexity of its composition, the Sahel constitutes a strategic depth inseparable from Algeria’s comprehensive conception of national security”.
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An alliance of armed movements has imposed a suffocating security and economic cordon around the capital, Bamako
Foremost among the threats are jihadist networks linked to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its hybrid offshoots, including the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa. The wider landscape also includes transnational organisations such as Boko Haram, allied Islamist groups including Ansar Dine and Ansar al-Sharia, and dozens of other organisations operating along the faultlines between Libya, Chad, Mali and, more recently, Burkina Faso.
Recent coordinated attacks and violent clashes in Mali have been carried out by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, in alliance with fighters from the separatist Azawad Liberation Front. They targeted military positions and major towns across the north and central regions. Explosions were reported in Sévaré, a central Malian town that hosts a military base and airport. The main prison at Kenioroba outside the capital, where militants have been detained, also came under attack. The army said it repelled the assaults and killed several attackers.
Analysts wonder whether this quickly repaired relationship between Mali and Algeria can repair the region’s fractured security architecture across the Sahel. Intelligence coordination will help, as would protection of the main logistical arteries along which fuel tankers are now being attacked. The two states will need to activate joint intelligence coordination centres and revive direct negotiations between the opposing parties.
Abdelrafik Kachout, a political analyst and lecturer at Mohamed Seddik Ben Yahia University, described the mission as “arduous, given the tangled strands of the crisis,” adding: “What is certain is that Algeria will draw upon its political skill, rich historical legacy, and regional experience to draw the adversaries out of the trenches and towards the negotiating table.”
Kachout said Algeria has built up trust among several of the parties and actors on the ground, “foremost among them the Azawad factions, which continue to place confidence in the country’s strategic approach,” adding: “Algeria has consistently urged them to renounce the language of arms and establish common ground capable of preserving national unity against the profound divisions between the densely populated south and the troubled desert north, where most of Mali’s Tuareg population lives.”
Mohamed al-Saleh Jamal, a political researcher and academic, said repaired relations between Mali and Algeria “will provide an opportunity to revive channels of political consultation and security coordination between them, thereby strengthening cooperation against shared threats” such as terrorism, organised crime, and smuggling.
Algeria has expertise in counterterrorism, border security, and crisis management, he said. “It has also accumulated considerable diplomatic experience in mediation and in reconciling opposing positions. This expertise represents a valuable asset that could underpin bilateral cooperation within a framework of full respect for the sovereignty of each state and non-interference in its internal affairs.”
Kachout warned that “security solutions cannot function in isolation from geo-economic tools… Foremost among these are humanitarian and logistical assistance”. Algeria’s oil companies might even enter Mali’s energy sector and help reduce production costs, he suggested, while the trans-Saharan road network offered other opportunities. “Mali is labouring under the burden of a fuel blockade,” he said. “This confirms that the imperatives of economic geography were among the principal forces that drew the two countries towards reconciliation.”
The fiercest clashes are no longer confined to the distant northern fronts; their shadow is approaching Mali’s historic city of Timbuktu, which is now gripped by an acute fuel crisis. Armed groups have adopted a deliberate strategy of economic strangulation, waging a “war on tankers” by attacking convoys carrying essential supplies.
Closing the chapter of discord between Algeria and Mali therefore carries significance far beyond diplomatic protocol. It has become a strategic necessity imposed by the pressures of a theatre of conflict. Algeria’s previous success in containing the region’s so-called ‘belt of fire’ bodes well, but observers are wary. The sands of the Sahel may still conceal further discord beneath their surface.
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