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Buyers have hit the pause button lately in the housing market, and that means there are many listings lingering instead of getting into contract. So, what are buyers willing to pay? Do we need to discount sales from the spring? These are the big questions. Let’s talk about pulling comps and avoiding getting stuck on sales only. Also, I have some fresh insurance stats for twelve local counties. 
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
11/19/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
1/15/27 PCAR
1/26/27 Residential Roundup
“I USED TO BE GOOD AT PULLING COMPS”
I’ve had a few conversations lately with real estate agents, and they’ve said stuff like, “I’m usually good at pulling comps, but these homes just aren’t moving.” I get it. You’re not alone. The truth is there is a sense of having to test the market today to see what buyers are willing to pay. We’ve lost about 15-20% of buyer demand in recent months, so there is a price discovery process to figure out where buyers will bite. It takes a little longer to sell right now too in the midst of a slowing fall season. Ultimately, sellers need to lower the price if buyers aren’t offering. Bottom line. 
ADVICE FOR COMPS IN TODAY’S MARKET
Spoiler alert. There isn’t any new advice for pulling comps right now because nothing has changed about how the market works. It might feel like there should be a new methodology since buyer demand has shrunk quickly, but that’s not necessary. Here’s a post I wrote about the struggle of pulling comps in 2026, and this is still true. My advice? Give the most weight to similar homes getting into contract, give negative adjustments to recent sales if required, and look at more than 90 days of sales because that’s probably not enough to understand the trend. By the way, if you’re NOT struggling, I’ll buy be first in line to buy your book. 
SALES TELL US ABOUT THE PAST
A quick reminder. Sales are like historic artifacts that tell us about the past. They tell us what the market used to be like whenever these homes got into contract. What is the market like right now? We see the current market in the listings and pendings. This dynamic is always true in any housing market, and it’s true today. If we get stuck on the sales only, then we’re living in the past. The tricky part is gauging how the market has changed, and sometimes that takes time or a little trial and error (or testing the market as I talked about above).
NEGATIVE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED
Case-in-point: I finished an appraisal yesterday where the top of the neighborhood market was $440,000 in the summer, but current pendings are more like $420,000 to $430,000 right now. Honestly, there aren’t that many data points, so it’s not easy to tell (it’s always easy in real estate text books). So, if I were to use older sales at $440,000 in a report, I probably need to adjust them down by $10,000 to $20,000 or so because the market is willing to pay less today. Part of this has to do with a softening fall season as expected, but it’s also about evaporating demand. Other listings that are priced higher feel like they’re just lingering right now instead of moving, and that reinforces my point. Keep in mind, there isn’t one adjustment to give for every neighborhood and price range, so please don’t be rigid about this vague example. I just wanted to talk about something tangible to show the importance of giving the most weight to current pendings and listings (and the struggle of the process). We need to be careful to not pin the entire trend on just one active listing or pending too. It’s tricky because there aren’t that many pendings, which is why we need to study adjacent areas to understand what the market is doing. Use the MLS map search to visualize sales, pendings, and listings. Don’t do a standard search. Use the map.
IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT RATES FOR BUYERS & SELLERS
Don’t get me wrong, mortgage rates spiking has been a huge part of taking demand out of the market, but lackluster vibes are also about the price of gas and food, increasing insurance rates, and uncertainty about the future. Here’s the way I’m thinking about it. Do you like my Venn diagram? What would you change? 
WAITING FOR THE HOUSING MARKET’S CABOOSE
What are home prices doing? That’s always the question, but it’s one of the last things we see in the sales stats. What I mean is inventory has been growing, but we haven’t really seen much change in prices yet because it takes a few months to see the price trend show up in closed sales. In other words, closed prices are the caboose in the train of real estate data. We see the change first in the listings, but it’ll show up in the closed sales eventually a few months down the road. This word picture is one I’ve heard through the years from Jonathan Miller (though I don’t think he’s used a Thomas the Tank Engine meme).
DANG, ARE WE STILL TALKING ABOUT INSURANCE?
We didn’t used to talk about insurance much in housing conversations, but here we are. When insurance rates skyrocket, it can make a difference for where people choose to live, and it can affect home prices and sales volume. It’s sobering to remember there are real people behind these numbers. 
MORE FAIR PLAN POLICIES IN CALIFORNIA IN 2026
When people can’t get traditional insurance, they get what’s called the California FAIR Plan (or “unfair plan” as locals call it). This is basically an association made up of all insurers, and it’s deemed last-resort type of insurance as it tends to be super expensive. New FAIR Plan stats just posted today, and it’s not a shocker to see more policies in 2026 in the state. 
SLOWER GROWTH IN CALIFORNIA
We’ve been seeing exponential growth in FAIR Plan policies in California, but this year they only grew by 8.4%, which is better than previous years. On one hand, this is good news, but let’s not forget policy costs rose by about 30% on average this month, so it would be sugarcoating to only focus on slowing growth. So many consumers are feeling the pain of higher insurance rates. Could having fewer wildfires this year play into these numbers too? Let me know what you think. 
MOST LOCAL COUNTIES HAVE PLATEAUED
Some counties saw growth in FAIR Plan policies, but most have basically plateaued. It’s hard to say if we’ve reached an inflection point here, but the hope is to see traditional insurers step back into California and see the insurance market regulate so that the FAIR Plan is not needed as much. 
FAIR PLAN IN TWELVE LOCAL COUNTIES
It seems like most areas have plateaued. Or maybe there is just a little bit of growth or shrinking. It depends on the location, but plateau is a pretty good description. 
Thanks for being here. I appreciate it.
Question: What are you hearing about insurance from buyers and sellers? What are you seeing happen with prices in the listings?
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