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Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
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In today’s edition, we run through how the redistricting tables rapidly turned on Democrats. Plus, Kristen Welker explores what President Donald Trump’s continued grip on the GOP could mean for the party as the midterm season heats up.
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— Adam Wollner
Two and a half weeks ago, Democrats were riding high. Their ambitious plan to redraw Virginia’s congressional map was narrowly approved by voters, bringing the national redistricting battle roughly to a draw.
But that dynamic changed in the blink of an eye following a series of unfortunate events for the party — culminating in today’s Virginia Supreme Court ruling blocking that map — that have left Republicans with the clear advantage on the gerrymandering front as they aim to protect their narrow U.S. House majority this fall.
Let’s review how we got here.
Supreme Court: One week after Virginia’s redistricting referendum, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a long-awaited ruling that states can almost never consider race when drawing district lines, overturning Louisiana’s congressional map and putting majority-minority districts represented by Democrats around the country at risk.
Florida: Later that day, Florida’s Republican-led Legislature gave final approval to a redrawn map designed to allow the party to pick up as many as four House seats — essentially canceling out the net gain Democrats were hoping for in Virginia.
Louisiana: The next day, Republican officials moved to delay Louisiana’s May 16 House primaries and, at the beginning of this week, the U.S. Supreme Court said that its ruling on the state’s map could go into effect immediately. That means Louisiana lawmakers can now take up a new map that targets at least one of the state’s two Democratic-held districts in time for the midterms.
Tennessee: On Thursday, Tennessee’s GOP-controlled Legislature passed a redrawn map that carves up the state’s only majority-Black district, represented by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen. That puts Republicans in position to pick up another seat as a result of redistricting.
South Carolina: Republican state lawmakers left the door open this week to a redraw of South Carolina’s current map, which has just one district held by a Democrat, Rep. Jim Clyburn.
Virginia: This morning, the Virginia Supreme Court overturned the results of the special election that would have led to a new map that had four additional Democratic-friendly districts. The court ruled that Democrats did not follow the proper procedure in placing the constitutional amendment on the ballot.
Alabama: Gov. Kay Ivey signed legislation this afternoon that would set up new primary elections in districts that would be affected by a potential congressional new map. Alabama Republicans are awaiting word from the courts if they are now allowed to use a previously drawn map that had one majority-minority district that favors Democrats rather than the current two.
Bottom line: Based on the new maps that have been enacted over the past year, Republicans could pick up as many as 14 seats, compared to six for Democrats.
Democrats need to flip three seats to win control of the House in November, and the political winds are still generally blowing in their direction. But the gains Republicans are poised to make in redistricting will at minimum ensure a tougher fight.
🗺️ Related read: Redistricting pits California Republican incumbents against each other in a fight for survival, by Ben Kamisar
The past week has brought fresh reminders of President Donald Trump’s grip on the GOP — and how it can be a double-edged sword for a party trying to hold onto its congressional majorities.
Indiana’s Republican primaries were an overwhelming victory for Trump and his allies, who knocked off five of the seven targeted state senators who had blocked his redistricting push there. Even as these Republicans told us they had no regrets after opposing Trump, the message GOP primary voters sent was clear.
“Many of us were surprised at the strength of the Trump endorsement,” state Sen. Greg Walker told me on “Meet the Press NOW” this week, going on to say “this was meant to be a clear message of retribution.”
He added a warning: “Do you think that Indiana serves better when we’re under coercion and threat? Or do you think we serve better as legislators when we’re allowed to have our own cognitive abilities and reason things out and use our best judgment?”
Trump didn’t just flex his political muscle in Indiana. He recently moved to narrow the Kentucky Senate field by endorsing Rep. Andy Barr, prompting businessman Nate Morris to drop out despite his backing from key Trump allies. And he’s set the stage for more tests of his strength in primaries in Louisiana and Kentucky later this month.
While things are rosy for Team Trump in Republican primaries, the warning signs for this fall’s general election environment remain clear, even as Republicans appear to have secured an edge in the redistricting wars after the Virginia Supreme Court knocked down a new Democratic-drawn map.
Trump’s approval rating is regularly below 40%, including at 37% with Americans in two new surveys out over the last week. And the polling continues to show Americans are deeply frustrated with the president on economic issues. A recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll found that 61% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, and a similar share say both the economy isn’t working well for them and that they blame Trump for the recent rise in gas prices.
That polling, along with the fact that the president’s party almost always loses seats in a midterm election, underscores the challenges that Republicans face in November.
Tune into “Meet the Press” this Sunday, when I’ll speak with Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J. I’ll also be joined by Maryland Democratic Gov. Wes Moore and Arkansas Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders for the latest installment of our “Common Ground” series.
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.
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