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Investing.com — ON Semiconductor (ON) beat on both lines in Q3 FY2026 (reported Nov 2, 2026), yet the stock fell 2.18% to $70.11 and slipped further after hours. It is now rebounding: $72.92, +4.01% as of Nov 3, 12:49 PM EST. The pattern is familiar. The company has beaten EPS four quarters running, with surprises of 3–5%. The price reaction has been muted or negative in three of those four.
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ON Semiconductor (ON): Trading at $72.92 (Market Cap: ~$28.4B) || Q3 EPS $0.90 vs $0.87 est || Revenue $1.72B vs $1.70B est || 52-week range $44.56–$134.92 (as of Nov 3, 12:49 PM EST)
Is margin recovery real? Yes. Non-GAAP gross margin hit 41.2%, up 190 bps sequentially and the fifth straight quarter of expansion. Operating margin reached 23.2%. EPS grew four times faster than revenue year over year. Read more (Nov 2, 2026)
Can AI offset the weak spots? AI data center revenue jumped 175% year over year to $180M.
Is cash generation holding? Free cash flow was $489M, or 28% of revenue. Liquidity is $5.9B. Read more (Nov 2, 2026)
Is demand improving? Revenue was up 7% sequentially and 11% year over year, and management said growth ran above seasonal trends.
Automotive revenue slipped 1% sequentially to $777M. Management guides for a high-single-digit decline in Q4, with normalization in Q1 2027 as supply comes online. The company says this is a deliberate supply allocation toward AI and industrial, not lost demand. That is plausible, but it is unproven until the Q1 print.
Q4 FY2026
Guidance midpoint
Consensus
Revenue
$1.765B (range $1.715–1.815B)
$1.74B
Gross margin
42.5%
n/a
EPS
$1.01 (range $0.95–1.07)
$0.96
The EPS guide sits above consensus. Estimate revisions are drifting up: EPS +0.55% over 90 days and +16.55% over one year. Consensus EPS is $3.21 for FY2026 and $4.52 for FY2027.
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Ferric acquisition close. The deal is $600M plus up to $175M in earnouts, with closing expected in Q4. It lifts the 2030 AI data center target by 20% to more than $3B. Management expects no meaningful near-term financial impact.
Q4 results, tentatively Feb 8, 2027. Consensus is EPS $0.96 and revenue $1.74B. Watch whether gross margin reaches 42.5% and whether AI data center grows in the mid-teens, as guided.
Automotive normalization in Q1 2027. Supply additions need to show up in the numbers.
2030 targets. These are 12–14% revenue CAGR, 53% gross margin, 38% operating margin and 100% of FCF returned through buybacks. They are ambitious against a 2025 base of 38.4% gross margin.
Bull: Margin leverage, AI mix and buyback capacity point to earnings compounding faster than revenue.
Bear: The stock is volatile, with a beta of about 2.05 and a trailing P/E near 45.5 per the call coverage. It is down 14% over the past month and 29% over six months. The automotive dip and acquisition execution are the pressure points.
Prices are as of Nov 3, 2026, 12:49 PM EST. Other figures are from the Nov 2, 2026 release and call.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
Original Article
ON Semiconductor earnings analysis: questions answered and next catalysts
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